Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Illegal Immigration: Discuss without Fear

Immigration is a subject that caused the most heated discussions during my time in law school. It was surprising to me. I thought it would be abortion, death penalty, gay marriage, torture, or maybe gun control but no it was illegal immigration.

Liberals are unable to argue rationally on the issue. They get angry and almost immediately start throwing out personal insults, allegations of racism, and all sorts of other things. Voices get elevated, heart rates jump, and beads of sweat begin to form, and many times it is on white faces. For one to resort to personal attacks so quickly in a debate should be a sure sign of weakness. And in this case it most definitely is.

We want to stop criminals, undocumented workers, and potential terrorists crossing into the United States BUT we want documented workers, skilled laborers, and a steady flow of new citizens into the country. So how do we do both?

The conservative/legalist argument is that it is pointless to reform immigration law before we restore security at the border first. They want to close up the border with a fence and strict enforcement of immigration laws, with a clear documented record of who is coming in and who is leaving. Within the United States, they want illegal immigrants deported. Problem is there are probably anywhere from 12-15 million of them here already, many that have been here for years.

Another more mixed conservative proposal is to secure the border THEN decide what to do with those already here. In this case, they don't want mass deportations, rounding up of individuals. They are willing to listen to pathway to citizenship but will NOT grant amnesty. the legalists will not grant amnesty or offer any path to citizenship that does not require them to jump through all sorts of hoops and in many cases go home.

Moderates want to secure the border, create a path to citizenship, and really thats it. So they want a secure border and essentially amnesty. In this debate there are probably very few moderates.

The liberal will not secure the border until we have a clear path to citizenship, amnesty for those already here, and equal protection of those that came here illegally with those that come here legally.

Which of the four positions stops the criminal element from entering the United States? all of them except the liberal proposal.

Which of the four positions provides a means of discerning the criminal from the non-criminal immigrants (productive from nonproductive immigrants)? The two conservative proposals.

Which of the four positions provides a path to citizenship to immigrants that are already here? All four.

Wait a minute? You mean those crazy right-wing racists want a path to citizenship? Yes they do. It would not be easy and millions would likely have to leave under their plan. It requires paying a fine, paying back-taxes, becoming registered, learning English, and proving that they have no criminal record here or in Mexico. If they just got here, they would probably not have this option, they would probably have to leave. In addition, they would want the federal government to strictly control the flow of immigrants from this point forward to ensure we are receiving only productive new members of America.

Here is what offends a lot of people. hardliners would want those illegal immigrants who do not do all the above to be deported. That number could be quite large.

I believe the hardliner position is actually rational, except for the active effort to deport illegal immigrants. We should not focus law enforcement efforts in rooting out illegals but rooting out the reasons they come here, unscrupulous employers that have no problem hiring illegals and paying them sub-minimum wage. I also believe people should be given a fair chance to stay here, earn a living, and become a citizen. No Amnesty, but lets not make it impossible for a hard-working immigrant to get it done.

What is happening in Arizona? Self-defense. Arizona is not making a statement on what to do with illegals. What they are saying is that the lack of immigration enforcement or a reformed policy has led to an explosion of crime on the border. It is a situation they can no longer tolerate and are hence authorizing state police to do what the federal government will not do.

Arizona should not be doing this, but they were forced into a corner. What should happen is the federal government stop being cowards and actually agree on illegal immigration reform. At that point, the Arizona Law should be repealed.

I believe illegal immigration is stalled because of a giant electoral "boogey" man that does not exist. Somehow politicians fear a massive backlash from Hispanic voters if they support a strict or tough immigration policy. I do not believe that to be true. First, illegal immigrants do not vote and neither do their families. those that did come here illegally and were either granted amnesty in the 80s or have become citizens some other way since then will certainly not like the new law but I don't they have such large numbers, nor vote reliably.

What about those that came here legally? There is no compelling evidence that legal Hispanic immigrants and citizens strongly oppose tough immigration policy. The demonstrations are large and sometimes violent as it was in Arizona the other day, but one must ask: how many demonstrating are illegal immigrants? In other words, what portion of those protests were from non-citizens?

It is nothing more than a boogey man that moderates and conservatives must ignore. The majority of this country does not want amnesty, and they want the border secured. Go with that and you will not face this shadowy backlash from the electorate.

This situation needs to be solved. We are in such dire economic condition, we cannot help neighboring countries deal with their poor and unemployed until we can deal with our own.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Leader of a Movement? Or a movement of leaders?

The title here is awkward for a reason. You notice the first question is capitalized while the second is not. In the United States, there is a common social desire to designate leader, someone that represents your beliefs and has the intelligence, skill, and power to make things happen. This is not a political split, both left and right have this among them. But there is also a second common social desire. On both left and right, there is a desire to be part of a movement, part of something big that has no "leader" or "authority". The question is: are you a person who seeks out a leader first and then join his movement? Or are you a person who seeks out the movement or perhaps starts the movement?

The Democratic Party has had a love affair with icons or the leader type. In the modern era it started with John F. Kennedy. He came about in an age of television, which gave greater emphasis to aesthetics. Combining this with gifted oration, you had an icon. JFK had substance. Democratic leaders after that did not.

Today it is clear Barack Obama replaced Hillary as the Democratic icon. The Party rallied around a cult of personality for one and then the other. Obama lacked substance, but that didn't matter, he was the chosen one. Hillary had some substance, but her image was not as compelling and so the Party switched horses so to speak. He won the Presidency on his cult of personality and the aesthetics, not substance. They should be regretting it. Few can argue otherwise today.

It is not just Presidents either. In Congress, the Democratic Party is top down. Speaker Pelosi and majority leader Reid rule each chamber from the top down. The centrist leaderless movements or factions within each are cast aside for challenging the Obama-Pelosi-Reid leadership. Whether it is Blue Dogs or Bart Stupak. The bottom of the party that was not behind the top's agenda was forced to march forward with it.

Republicans are guilty as well. Republicans worship Ronald Reagan. An iconic image with substance, the red JFK if you will. In 2008, twenty years after he left office, Republicans quickly wanted to find the next Reagan. Problem was none were available. McCain was the top choice because he was an independent "maverick" type. People thought he was a better icon then Romney, Huckabee, or Guiliani. they were right. He selected another potentially great icon as his running mate, Sarah Palin. In the end, Obama proved the better one however.

What has happened afterward has been sad. After McCain's defeat, mainstream republicans are constantly "searching for a new leader of the party". They have been closely following Palin, Romney, Pawlenty, Steele, Bachmann, and Gingrich. But none of them will be the leader of the party. Palin, to her credit, does not appear she wants to be the new leader of the party. She decided to forego the typical track of serving out her term and then running for federal office in 2010. Instead she has joined the media side on Fox News and has become a vocal voice for grassroots groups and is participating in speaking engagements for other organizations. Cynics can argue she is trying to become a populist leader and will run for President in 2012, and maybe that is true, but it is a very unconventional path. Some top republicans are thus wrongly pessimistic or nervous because they have yet to find a new leader.

The Tea Party is the opposite. Members are not looking for a leader. They don't have a chairman, a president, CEO, delegates, central committee, or anything of the sort. In fact, try and find the national tea party website, it does not exist. They are not interested in finding a leader or coalescing in any centralized structure. Those that are part of the Tea Party Movement want to be part of a headless movement, not the bottom-rung of a pyramid organization. The Tea Party has no hierarchy to speak of.

There are drawbacks. Without a leader, there is no coherent grand strategy. The Tea Party does not have specific electoral or political goals. There is the "Contract From America" and various groups making endorsements but it is not unified in any single strategy. This can result in tactical mistakes, such as running multiple candidates and splitting the vote, allowing the opponent to win. Another possibility is one regional group at odds with another. This has yet to happen however. Despite this drawback, the movement can still succeed.

Tea Partiers see politics differently. They see politicians as levers that they pull, not the other way around. They have their favorites, they choose candidates and vote for them, but now a days they are prepared to vote them out just as quickly should they fail. They dislike both parties, they are not partisans at all. In particular this will happen with the Republican Party. Incumbent Republicans are being challenged from within their party in Arizona, Utah, and Florida. The Republican Party itself is no longer supplying the leadership and the direction. It is the voters and supporters. That makes things unpredictable and incoherent in the long term, but not the short term. In the short term, this can dramatically strengthen the Republican Party and give it better direction. By 2012, the Tea Party and all other associated movements will have to select their choice as the next President. Clearly they don't want Obama back. It is then they will be forced to designate an actual leader.

The changes in the country over the last two years has shifted a major part of the country away from this "cult of personality" or search for a leader of a movement. It is instead trying to become a movement of leaders. It is difficult and chances of success are typically low. But I think in 2010, they might pull it off dramatically changing the composition of the House and the Senate. We could see a different Washington in 2011-2012 but if the movement is to succeed they must continue into 2012 in order to change another third of the Senate and the President.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

More on the Tea Party: Not Radicals

This is from my Princeton Fox Blog, so it is more directed at Northeasterners. Here is what I have observed as contrasts between places like Illinois, North Carolina with New Jersey:

I am frankly surprised at the misconceptions and total lack of knowledge that New Jerseyans have of the Tea Party. It is clear the media, journalists, and others have successfully written them off as radicals, racists, and revolutionaries. And you have bought it.

The Tea Party Platform
The Tea Party is a loose confederation of conservatives, libertarians, concerned citizens, unaffiliated voters, conservative democrats, and independents. These groups may have their own top issues or most important agenda items but there are three main common themes:

1. Limited Government (in both power and dollars)
2. Individual Freedom (protections for religion, speech, right to bare arms, states' rights)
3. Free markets (strong rejection of socialism)

Gallup surveys showed the Tea Party's demographics are fairly mainstream. In other words, they are not All-White, All-rich, All-Christian, All-Republican, or All anything.

So really what makes them tick? The massive growth in government spending, the national debt, the increase in government power in areas of the banking sector, finance, healthcare, student loans, and automobiles. This political event alone is what awakened them. And I say awakened for a reason.

Gallup has also consistently shown this is a center-right country, 40% identify themselves as conservatives and other polls show that 50% or more have fiscally conservative views. Only about 26-29% of people identify themselves as liberal. And yet the Democrats won 255 of 435 seats in the House, and 60 of the 100 seats of the Senate. Obama won with 53% of the vote. How is this possible? Why is it that the Republicans don't dominate American politics???

The Awakening of the Right Wing
Like I said, this conservative side has only recently awakened. There is a segment of conservatives that don't vote because they regard both parties as essentially the same (and have a good case for it). However, the political battles and divergence of policies between the two parties in the last year and a half has changed that sentiment and "awakened" this segment. In other words, Obama's left-wing agenda awakened them. Had he practiced some moderation in his policy proposals, this movement might've remained asleep.

Another segment of the Tea Partiers simply don't vote because they don't feel their vote really makes a difference. Most of this type are not politically active at all. They have these beliefs but would rather keep to themselves and keep their beliefs to themselves. They have been convinced by televisions, movies, and other media that their beliefs are radical fringe right-wing ideas and that they would be ridiculed if they got more vocal of them.

Another segment is the far-right wing. They are a very small group, probably about 5-8% of the total population. They are militias, Christian Fundamentalists, most of them probably racist, and are in many respects anarchists. They may align themselves with the Tea Party, but a vast majority of the other groups in the Tea Party regard these people as crazy, just like the rest of the country.

The final segment, the largest, are disenchanted Republicans and fiscal conservatives that felt their party failed them and did not vote in 2008. This group is the most politically active in general, vote often, but this changed due to Republican failures in 2005-2007. They stopped identifying themselves as Republicans and expressed utter frustration with their party and the country as a whole. this segment was likely to awaken regardless of how leftist Obama's agenda was. It is the combination of this group with the others that give the Tea Party tremendous potential. They are reaching into populations of non-voters and even unregistered voters. Not to mention the fact that Independents are steadily realizing that the Tea Party reflects their ideas in regards to the deficit and government spending.

So, are they racist? Maybe 1 in 20 has white supremacist beliefs, AT THE MOST.
Are they anarchists? No, not even close.
Do they advocate overthrow of the government? No
Are they Christian Evangelicals or Fundamentalists? Many of them are, but none of the issues they are demonstrating for are related to religious or social issues. Sometimes yes, but like I said government power and spending are at the top of the list.

And it is important to note, the Tea Party is steadily growing. Gallup and other surveys show that more Americans consider themselves part of the movement in comparison to three months ago.

So what is their objective?
The slogan most often heard at Tea Parties is "Remember in November". A political protest and demonstration that wants to increase energy AND VOTE. What a bunch of psychos right? They are supporting candidates, donating money, hell they are voting in record numbers! MY GOD, they are going to tear this country down!!! They are critical of a Black President! Surely they are racists!!! By that logic, a Black President is infallible.

A Cautionary Note for Northeasterners
Most Americans do not live within 100 miles of New York or Washington. Most Americans do not get their news from the Big 3, or CNN, or MSNBC. Most Americans are not afraid of guns. Most Americans are not afraid of God or Christians. Whatever sophistication or education level you have achieved, remember you are in the minority and if you fail to take movements like the Tea Party seriously, you will remain in the minority in a sort of hyper-urbanized bubble of the East Coast from DC up to Boston. You are a minority and I think its time you do a MUCH better job understanding the rest of the country and their beliefs because in my experience in New Jersey there is a poor level of understanding.

Self-identified Republicans and moderate conservatives in the Northeast seem to be somewhat elitist and arrogant similar to liberal democrats. That must change. Not only Republicans but Northeasterners in general because last I checked the Census projects Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania will be losing electoral votes to Texas, Utah, and Georgia.

Its time to make a better effort to understand the rest of the country. Because there are more of them than you, and in November, more of them will win election to the House and Senate while Democrats will likely still dominate the Northeast.

Monday, April 19, 2010

Democratic Party: A Party of Fear and Paranoia

I discussed the major drawback of the polarity strategy (labeling an opponent as the evil enemy or the opposite) is that one can easily become paranoid or portrayed as paranoid. I felt that the Republican Party was allowing itself to fight the polar attacks of Democrats with their own polar attacks, which gives you short-term gains but leaves you reliant on whatever popular sentiment exists at that time. It is not a long term strategy. This has been true but something else is developing and it is not the result of the political tactics or words of the Republican Party.

The Democratic Party is becoming fearful and paranoid on its own.

Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid began this with their references to political assassinations, pro-slavery efforts in the 1850s, anti-civil rights movements, and hate crimes from the 1960s and 1970s. Then more Democrats jumped on board making references to the KKK, Neo-Nazis, and violent right-wing militias. This has been a common criticism of Democrats aimed at the anti-establishment Tea Party Movement that is focused on defeating the incumbent majority Party. Now you have more references to racism and political violence. Even former President Bill Clinton fears the anti-government sentiment will lead to violence such as the Oklahoma City bombing or the confrontations with fringe militias at Ruby Ridge and the religious group at Waco.

Just one problem. None of the Tea Party Protests or significant rallies have indicated their desire to overthrow the Government. In fact, they are invoking the Constitution, Declaration of Independence, and the words of previous political leaders as their rally point. It is antithetical to refer to existing political documents when overthrowing the existing political system.

Are they violent? No. There has been no bombings, no shots fired (except at Eric Cantor's campaign HQ), no burning down of government buildings, or calls for the death of President Barack Obama. Certainly if you look long and hard enough you will find crazies that support such actions but they are not leaders of the Tea Party Movement, and most Tea Partiers would opposed such illegal acts.

Thats the unique thing about the Tea Party. It is a popular movement that worships the rule of law. They want a return to a respect for the Law and a return to the conservative foundation of the country. They don't want to destroy anything literally or figuratively. They promote voter registration, voter participation, dissemination of information, and coordination of efforts across the country.

In the end that is what former President Clinton and others are afraid of. They are afraid of this alleged "anti-government" movement because it is really about the movement kicking them out of power. They are afraid of a popular movement that intends to vote them out. They should be afraid.

The Government ought to be afraid of its people.

More crazy talk comes from the sinking MSNBC and Time Magazine. Journalists (well in name only) Kleine and Heilemann seem to think Glen Beck and Sarah Palin are guilty of sedition. Their utter lack of legal knowledge is incredible. Sedition is a relic from a different age that has no relevance today. In other parts of the world it is a crime designed to protect unpopular tyrants. Are Beck and Palin guilty? NO! They invoke actions of voting, protesting, demonstrations, and other actions! All perfectly legal. All things that liberals love to promote as well and did so not five years ago against President Bush and the Iraq War.

The left also does not feel any remorse or responsibility for publishing falsehoods like Dan Rather's National Guard Records, infiltrating Tea Party protests like in Chicago, or outright accusing their political opponents of federal crimes that for the most part do not exist.

The Democratic Party has become paranoid, throwing out accusations and attacks that have no base in reality. They are so afraid of losing power they will say anything to discredit or slow down the popular tide that has turned so strongly against them in the past year. I think many Americans are beginning to see the pitiful, juvenile, and incompetent Government they voted in power not long ago. They will not make the same mistake this time around.

It seems very possible that the Republicans will retake the House and move to within 2 seats of retaking the Senate. This would completely stop the Obama Agenda dead in its tracks and lead to the end of the Pelosi-Reid era. Pelosi will likely be replaced as the Democratic House leader, and Reid is all but certain to lose his re-election bid in November.

Of course, unforeseen events in the next six months could change this. But as of now. I think the Democratic Party is deathly afraid of what is about to happen to them and are saying everything and anything they can think of to stop it.

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Chicago Tax Day Tea Party

It was an interesting week. Tea Party protests went on in every city and some in the media decided the story was that some of them were not as big as last year. Nevermind the fact that there were probably more protests than last year. I got to attend the Chicago Protest in Daley Plaza the epicenter of the Democratic Party Machine.

It was a group that likely exceeded one thousand, filling most, if not all of the plaza. All this in probably one of the five most liberal democratic cities in the country. There were tons of posters, flags, colonial hats, and of course a couple party crashers. An anti-war protest tried to butt in with a banner indicating war is the biggest wasteful spending. In another oddity, a professionally printed and distributed sign said war makes up 57% of the budget, something that is VERY off. Defense spending is roughly $600 billion (less than 20% of the budget). Just goes to show that liberal protestors feel that any and all strategms, including blatant lies, are morally justified as long as the ends are just. It includes infiltrating non-liberal protests with inflammatory and idiotic signs and chants. The ends justify the means. Truly sad.

Others said No to war, and there were a couple signs that were anti-semitic, blaming Israel for all the problems of the world. Tea Party organizers and fellow protestors confronted these people asking them why they were there and arguing that the protest had nothing to do with either issue. Instead of physical confrontation, which is a common result of battles with left wing protestors and "anti-war" activists, a couple of people made signs indicating "plant" or "liberal" or "NOT part of the Tea Party". They stood next to these infiltrators with their own signs so that any idiot CNN or MSNBC camera would catch both the silly sign and the sign indicating the Tea Party Movement has nothing to do with it.

Earlier, a man was walking around with a giant swastika on a poster. The sight disgusted many, Chicago Police asked him to leave, at least I believe that is what happened. I had to leave to meet friends at the train station and bring them back to the Plaza. Either way, that guy was not there when we returned.

The speakers included a former gubanatorial candidate, five candidates for Congress, a couple activists, a doctor, a health insurance salesman, and the two individuals that were accosted by a CNN reporter over a year ago at a similar protest. That incident probably did more for the Tea Party than any other of these major BS media stories.

There were posters responding "we are NOT racist" or "I don't give a ___ that Obama is Black, it scares me to death that he is RED". The speeches were about government spending, taxes, corruption, greed, and the various offenses to the Constitution that President Obama and other Democratic leaders are responsible for.

There were no Neo-Nazis, no Klan members, no one advocating that all illegals should be rounded up and kicked out, no one calling Obama a fascist but plenty calling him a socialist, this was a regular political protest with nothing radical to speak of. No one called for revolution or violent overthrow of the government, much to the disappointment of Bill Clinton. His "fear" of these anti-government protests is really just fear that Democrats will lose power in November.

One of the speakers had an interesting comment: When asked by a reporter what the Tea Party was, where is its website, and who is its' leader, this woman laughed answering "we are not some top-down movement with some sort of demi-god at its head. This is as grassroots as you can get, decentralized, spread out, and very large. No professionally made signs, no corporate or political money bringing us together. In fact, if any insurance companies were paying these protestors, she feinted anger that she didn't get a check."


Sorry to disappoint democrats, socialists, liberals, and others out there. No crazies. This is a legitimate and mainstream political protest that is large in scale and threatens to completely destroy the Democratic majorities in both the House and Senate in November. Should it continue, President Obama has little chance of re-election. Even now his job approval has been consistently below 50% for over a month now. A Healthcare Reform and Nuclear Treaty failed to create any momentum.

The Tea Party is a rejection of a large federal government, taxes, encroachment on individual rights, and the attempted takeover of the economy. It sometimes ventures into other issues but this is its core, if one existed. Nothing racist, nothing radical, no revolutionary themes, actually it is the opposite. It is a counter-revolutionary theme in direct opposition to the dramatic changes President Obama and Democrats have attempted to bring to us. It is rooted in the Constitution, the beliefs and writings of the founders, and the conservative principles that have been around the whole time.

This is different than the right-wing of the Bush Presidency. This is not driven by Evangelicals or a desire to change the world. This is more focused on the United States itself, its very Foundation, and the future of the political system that was formed 230 years ago. It is actually more conservative in that sense than Bush or his Evangelical Base. It is likely larger and can reach into virtually every state in the Union (as opposed to the more Christian Fundamentalist regions of the country).

It is grassroots, decentralized, and unguided by any political elite. Its as American as you can get really. Will it succeed? Will it lead to change in November? The evidence strongly suggests yes. This is still a center-right country and this rejection of the Government policies of the past three to five years was, in many ways, inevitable.

Monday, April 5, 2010

The Summer of Tea

The Tea Party seems to continue its momentum into the Spring of 2010. Why? Because it is a widespread popular movement of strong beliefs about the role of government in our lives. This is not a protest of one issue that is important this year or next year, this is a movement with an ideology that has long term aspirations and impact. It is limited government (in authority, money, and people), individual rights (they respect the entire Bill of Rights, not just one or two of their favorite amendments), and free markets.

It is large as well. Rasmussen has released a survey indicating 48% of Americans feel the Tea Party Movement reflects their beliefs better than the President (who got 44%). Gallup just released a survey showing the Tea Party is fairly mainstream in terms of its demographics. That means it is not "all white", not "all wealthy", not "all republican", in fact it is not "all" anything.

Will they change things in November? Well lets see the evidence so far: Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and Virginia. In New York, the conservative activists and tea party supporters successfully kicked the appointed republican candidate off the ballot in favor of the Conservative Party choice. Republicans won big victories in Virginia and New Jersey in 2009. Massachusetts had a lot to do with Scott Brown but you cannot deny that a powerful pro-republican trend is being set. Do Tea Partiers like the Republican Party? Not really, but they have their favorite candidates in various races and guess what, their favorite candidates are all Republican.

They independent-minded men and women with little affiliation with the current party leadership. And that is exactly how the Tea Party likes them.

Where to go from here: There is a risk that the energy from the Tea Party Movement may slow by November, particularly if the jobs situation improves, the economy improves, or Obama manages to get some good PR on a foreign policy issue or illegal immigration. However, I don't believe this to be the case. Like I said above, the anger and emotion of the Tea Party Movement was NOT triggered by the Healthcare Debate. Sure, that definitely strengthened it but the foundation is elsewhere. And in the end nothing will change. The government will still be massive in November, taxes will still be higher in November, the government will still have incredible control of the economy in November, and the government will certainly still try to encroach on First Amendment, Second Amendment, and Tenth Amendment rights in November. As long as those things don't change, this energy will continue.

But let us not ignore the risk. How can the Tea Party remain active and energetic? Well Newt Gingrich, Karl Rove, and others have offered their advice and I agree with it. Keep informed, educate yourself on the candidates and the issues, make sure you are registered to vote and that everyone else in the movement is registered to vote, continue events, protests, fundraising activities, crashing town halls, and other such public displays. Continue to pound away at Democratic Congressmen via mail and phone calls. Finally, make sure that the weekend before the election, you set up very LARGE events to peak the energy right as the election is upon us. In fact, space events out evenly such as a 9/12 event, November 1st event, 4th of July Event, and Memorial Day Event. Every two months another big display. Doesn't wear people down but is sufficiently frequent enough to keep people up.

Tea Partiers should strive for nothing less than kicking the Democrats out of power in the House and shrinking the Democratic majority in the Senate. in 2011-2012, Tea Partiers should do their homework and get out the vote for primaries to make sure the right kind of men and women get nominated in the Republican primaries. No more RINOs or career politicians. I think this is all possible, reasonable, and realistic. Even expert analysts place odds of a Republican takeover at 35-50%. Pretty good if you ask me.

Sunday, April 4, 2010

The Polarity Strategy: Demagoguery

Politics is almost always saturated with the use of the polarity strategy. Polarity requires one designate an enemy, a wrong, or some sort of bad trend that compels people to act. In war, its the use of propaganda to get the people personally angry at the enemy such as the characterizations of the vicious bloodthirsty Japanese in World War 2, or even when the Nazis used constant propaganda techniques to demonize the Jews, then the Poles, then the Soviets. It stirs the people into anger and they demand action.



It does not need to be a specific enemy or person. It could be a crime. Groups have always used the traumatic imagery of tragedies to stir anger and mobilize the people to action. A little girl kidnapped from her parents, sexually assaulted and murdered successfully mobilized people into utilizing the new Amber Alert, increasing punishments on sex offenders, and creating the sex offender registry. Mothers of Drunk Drivers (MADD) would tell vivid stories of their family members lost in auto accidents involving a drunk driver. That raised the drinking age to 21 and strengthened enforcement against DUI and raised the penalties. It is important to note that a cause pushed through polarity strategy isn't necessarily without merit or substance. Drunk driving and pedophilia are two things that certainly warrant attention and action. But it is a strategy, that is all, it can be used for any cause.



Today both political wings use it a lot. The right-wing demonizes abortion doctors, gay marriage advocates, the atheists of the ACLU, elitist liberals, greedy labor unions, and criminal illegal immigrants. The left-wing demonizes health insurance corporations, Wall Street, dirty industry, greedy doctors, heavy-handed police officers, reckless soldiers, cruel and greedy white men, and sometimes churches.



The left wing has also done an excellent job of using the dormant polarity strategy. That is, demonizing opposition to their own cause. Those who oppose public education programs are anti-children, anti-teachers, and anti-education. Those who oppose Universal Healthcare are selfish greedy people who don't want to pay for basic healthcare for the poor, the needy, and others. Those who oppose their Immigration Policies are racist, intolerant, and anti-American because the history of America is one of immigrants. Those who oppose their foreign policy are warmongering, imperialists, and anti-Muslim.



This multi-directional use of the polarity strategy has not been successful in swelling the ranks of the left-wing but has successfully persuaded a majority of moderates of the virtue of their cause. In this case, it has worked very well for Democrats over the past five years.



What about merit? What about substance? There is substance to some of their positions but that is not how they persuade a center-right country to back their cause. They need to use the polarity strategy, demagoguery, at every turn. Look no further than the Healthcare Summit. While Republicans argued numbers, specific provisions in the bill, and the overreach of the bill, Democrats told stories of poor Jesus in Reno, and other poor minorities who could not afford insurance and are suffering.



In the United States, in an age of cable news, the internet, and instant communication, demagoguery is very effective. It will continue to be effective as long as people vote on what they see and hear on television, on the internet or otherwise. As long as the facts are shrouded in darkness or distorted in public discourse, the polarity strategy will reign.



What is the counter-strategy to the polarity strategy? Well, one that has developed over the past couple centuries has been the demagogic tendency toward paranoia. As a faction continues to label individuals and groups as enemies, the list grows and soon one cannot help but wonder if that faction has become paranoid, irrational, and delusional. How can everyone be the enemy? How can so many be the enemy? It is more than just playing the "blame game", a faction that uses polarity to excess begins to lose its grip on reality, if it cannot stop itself from creating enemies. Aggressive tyrants are especially prone to paranoia (Hitler, Stalin, Mao). Push them to perceive steadily more and more individuals and groups as enemies and soon the rational observer will begin to see the paranoia.



What about the people? Will we ever come to realize we are allowing ourselves to be persuaded by a parade of demagoguery and fear? Some are coming to their senses, to be sure. But the reaction seems to be the demagoguery in the reverse, the demonization of the Democratic Party, liberals, and socialists. That is hardly an improvement. It is also equally divisive as the Democratic polarity strategy.



Another is to focus on the performance of the Democratic Party. According to the raw numbers, they have governed poorly. This has been used well so far but can be improved. The Democratic Party has been in control of Congress for almost 4 years now. And yet, we seem to look at a record only 1 year long. Bush may have been President, but the Democrats were a key player in the government policies of 2007-2008, the period that preceded the recession. One can also blend fact with fiction. One can argue Democratic policies likely led to the banking and housing collapse, or that they had an opportunity to avert the disaster but decided not to.



This is done all the time on both sides. Republicans are not quite as effective in utilizing this strategy. They need to get better.



Not only has the economy, financial reform, unemployment, and other problems arisen under their watch, but the outlook for the country is poor. Experts do not expect unemployment to return to 5-6% for at least three years. Meaning, Democratic efforts to bring us to economic recovery have failed. Economic growth is very weak and will be weak for years, hence the Democrats have done nothing but prolong the crisis, just as they did in the 1930s. The myth of the New Deal and FDR can now be broken with our recent experiences with government stimulus and centralization of the economy. The New Deal did not get us out of the Great Depression, World War 2 did.



There is also another effect of the polarity strategy. The people want action, but who will act to punish the offender, destroy the evil cause, or stop the evil from occurring again? The Democrats have always promoted central government solutions, central government action. They do not want individuals, groups, or even state and local governments solving these problems. To them there is only one solution. Nationalization, Centralization, and government authority.



It is important to point out: every action exerts power and authority. By calling for action, the Democrats are asking for more power and authority.



Who do Republicans want to give power and authority to? Well, taxpayers and businesses. Unfortunately that comprises barely half of the population (only half the country pays federal income taxes), and businesses are not visible people with families or dreams. What about state and local governments? Very few Republicans seem to want power or authority in these areas to solve these problems. They argue the negative but offer no compelling alternative. At least it is not compelling to the non-ideological moderate.



Do we want to call people to action? As stated above, a polarity strategy to counter a polarity strategy is a troublesome idea. It is short-term and does not allow Republicans to hold the moral high ground. Even now they are no more popular than the Democratic Party. The Republicans seem to arbitrarily use substance and merit as well. Attempts to portray Democrats as paranoid has also been seldom used.



In my mind the Republicans should consider the following:



(1) keep control of the reverse polarity strategy, don't just demonize the Democrats, liberals, and socialists. That will help you make short term gains but it lowers your potential growth and exposes you to potential problems later on if popular opinion swings again.



(2) Portray the Democrats as paranoid, seeing nearly everyone as the enemy: Wall Street, industry, corporations, health insurance companies, doctors, police officers, soldiers, CIA agents, veterans, gun-toting Bible-thumpers, people on television, and anyone else you can get them to blame. Make them appear as if they are pointing their finger at everyone around them.



(3) Finally, find a way to occupy the moral high ground with clear alternatives unrelated to demagoguery. Your call to action should be one of disarming those who act. Government solutions always fail. Solutions are better left with individuals, businesses, but particularly state and local governments. It is time to look elsewhere for solutions and it is time Republicans become clear and coherent in their offering of alternatives.