Healthcare Predictions

The new Healthcare plan will fail to pass the House as is. The Abortion language will be put back in but will still come up short with only 205-210 voting in favor. The Senate will use reconciliation to use a compromised version of their own that will hopefully be more acceptable. It will pass maybe with 56-57 votes. But no Healthcare Reform in 2010.

President Obama will lash out at Republicans as obstructionists, insurance companies for buying off Congressmen, Tea Partiers for misstating his plan and fearmongering, and will also quietly criticize Pelosi and Reid. He will no longer campaign for either of them and will try to get new leadership in Congress.

He will be forced to move on to illegal immigration, cap and trade, and financial reform. Out of those three only financial reform will go through. The Summer and Fall will come and Obama will campaign full-time for Democrats, doing speeches and using his appeal to help keep a majority in the House. He will fail.

Iraq will continue to improve, Afghanistan will start to turn around slightly, Iran will probably have nuclear weapons - whether they admit it or not, and European Union will be in full catastrophe mode when Italy and Greece collapse financially. So really Obama's positives will be in foreign policy but he cannot acknowledge that and will not. Because they are succeeding because he adopted Bush's strategies.

The Democrats will thus be dealt a fatal blow. Unable to govern, incompetent, and clearly unconcerned with the will of the people, they will lose control of the House of Representatives due to a couple more retirements between now and November. Republicans will likely hit 219-222 seats, a slim majority. The Republicans will not regain the Senate but will get within 2-3 seats.

President Obama will then be forced to work with a Congress that is far less friendly.

This reform will fail in the House. The Democrats will self-destruct and it will have nothing to do with Republican dissent. I am hopeful that March will be a good month for the Conservative Movement and Republicans.