Will Healthcare be Obama's Waterloo?

Republicans had often mentioned that if they can defeat Obama's Healthcare plan, it could be his Waterloo, they famous defeat of the mighty Napoleon. There was criticism in that the Republicans did not have the interests of the country in mind but only the political interest of destroying the new Democratic President. Republicans countered with criticisms of the Plan itself but by then realy it did not matter. This was all in the Summer and Fall of 2009 when the Town Halls and Tea Party were becoming louder and angrier.

As doubt rose as to the passage of the Healthcare Plan, Obama and the Democrats got two small victories. The first was in the House, when the more liberal and expansive plan was passed 220-215. The second was in the Senate, when a less expansive but still liberal plan was passed 60-40. In both cases not a single Republican voted for it (well one did in the House but won't the second time around) and again the criticism was they are just obstructing Obama in hopes of arguing in November that he has accomplished nothing.

It is now March 2010, and Healthcare is still being debated. Obama had plenty of issues to choose from in his first two years: foreign policy, Iraq, Afghanistan, the economy, unemployment, illegal immigration, energy, education, and Terrorism in general. It is probably fair to say he has spent maybe 15-20% of his time on foreign policy and all of it turned out to be a continuance of the Bush Plan and the McCain Proposal in terms of Iraq and Afghanistan. He has spent 10% on economy with his failed Stimulus Package, Financial Reform, Mortgage Aid, and Bailouts. He is now only beginning to indicate an interest in illegal immigration. Cap and Trade barely passed the House and is stalled in the Senate but Obama does not seem to care too much. He has failed to close Gitmo by his self-imposed deadline and in the end may try the suspects in military tribunals as intended by Bush and McCain.

But his focus for over 50% of the time has been the passing of Healthcare. Everything else has been waiting or moving very slowly through the Congress. Obama is pressing this as his prime priority. This will be the one issue of his first two years.

So really, it is not Republicans that have wanted to turn this into a Waterloo, it is the President himself that has doubled-down his bets and continued to trudge forward with Healthcare, raising the stakes with every day that passes. As his other agenda items collapse, this is the one he wants most. And it is looking more and more like it will fail in the House. This is similar to a general putting everything he has in a single attack, high-risk, high reward. It is not Waterloo, it "Pickett's Charge".

At Gettysburg, General Lee had fought to a stalemate with the Union Army after two days. His Army took heavy losses but was still mostly intact and potent. On the third day he decides to commit the last remaining "fresh" units in his army to an attack on the very center of the Union line, unorthodox and very risky. Rather than withdrawing and trying to find another place to fight or forcing the Yankees to defend DC, he wanted to fight at Gettysburg. He had already committed most of his army to the battle and had not obtained victory. He was now going to commit the last portion of it. The attack failed miserably. Lee's defeat permanently crippled the Army of Northern Virginia. It lost 29,000 troops including some of its most experienced and capable soldiers. It would never again have the strength to directly attack the Union Army.

The same is happening here. Obama has used up a lot of energy in his vast "political army". With dominating majorities in both chambers of Congress he has had the firepower but in every battle up to now, he has managed only stalemates or minor victories. Now, as the tide of the battle in Washington is quickly turning against the Democrats, rather than withdrawing or attempting a more modest attack to gain what they can, Obama is going to hurl himself and his party one more time against the Republicans at the exact same spot on the battlefield. It is risky. If he fails, his party will limp into November having accomplished only a failed Stimulus Package, unpopular bailouts, a still open Gitmo, and no progress on Healthcare, Immigration, or Energy.

I give Obama credit for putting it all on the line. He is not a coward or spineless. If the Healthcare Bill dies in the House, as I think it will, Obama's political capital will have been spent, he will have a far more hostile Congress after the November elections and will not be in a position to "attack" or push any of his agenda items for the remainder of the first term.

As in Gettysburg, the Union Army did not force Lee to attack them and in fact did not expect any attack at all. It was Lee who decided on his own to take the gamble. Here, Obama has made the decision to put this much time and energy on this healthcare plan. It will be his Gettysburg, his Pickett's Charge, should it fail.