What to do about Obamacare

1. Repeal it
This is extremely difficult and historically not likely. To repeal, the plan would have to pass the House and the Senate (with 60 votes). Even if Republicans regain the House in 2010, they will not have control of the Senate until at least 2012. Even then, they are 19 seats away from controlling 60 seats. The odds of a democrat joining with Republicans to repeal it is nil. We would need 19 Senate wins, control of the House, and we must defeat Obama in 2012. A very tall order.

2. Legal challenges
Numerous states are going to try this. I don't know if this will go anywhere. Some of the most heinous provisions may be defeated but Obamacare as a whole will survive legal challenges.

What about the 2010 election?
If Republicans campaign on repealing Obamacare, it will score points in conservative districts and states. About 25-30 of the competitive House races would qualify along with 2 Senate races. Not enough really considering Republicans were probably going to win almost all of these races anyway. It might be a rallying cry to mobilize conservatives and Tea Partiers in many swing districts if they are not mobilized already. However, as a campaign issue, I don't think it helps in swing district.

Also, I am doubting how wise it would be to keep rehashing our defeat on Healthcare. What about the focus on Jobs this year? Unemployment? The lack of stock market movement in the last 6 months? How about Iran?

There are plenty of things to strike at Obama and Democrats with. The country is probably sick of Healthcare talk. Now that it is passed, I think many political junkies (myself included) will be glad to see it go. If anything, Republicans should slam Obama on the economy relentlessly for the next six months.

Was it Obama's Gettysburg? Well we would have to re-write history. In this case, Pickett's Charge succeeded and Obama now controls the high ground over Gettysburg. The Union Army will have to retreat and lick its wounds, but it was not destroyed. It must replenish itself and regain its composure and focus. Lee's Army (Obama), even with this victory, has completely worn itself out. It won the day but at what cost? Can Obama push through any other part of his agenda? No. Will it help him with a second term? Highly doubtful. Will it save Democrats from big losses in November? No, the best they can hope for is a wash on the issue in November.

What is the Democratic Strategy?
The Democrats will do everything they can to mitigate their losses in November. If they come out with majorities in both chambers, it will be a small victory for them. They will use 2010-2012 to pursue more popular policies and be more responsive to public opinion. That way, this rough term will be forgotten and the Republicans would be hard-pressed to make gains two elections in a row. Obama will have a legitimate shot ata second term, and Republicans would have to fight hard to retake either chamber.

If Democrats maintain majorities in both chambers in 2010, I think Obama can claim the first two years were a success in some measure. Rather than the disaster at Gettysburg, Obama could claim a draw and try for more small-scale operations from this point on. In the end, he got his Healthcare Reform.

If Republicans want to avoid this trek, they need to retake the House in November. That means that it has to be about more than just repealing Healthcare, there are plenty of issues to slam Democrats on. They cannot remain fixated on this battle, they need to move on and look for opportunities to counterattack Lee's weak Army (Obama). Boehner as a strategist is thoroughly unimpressive. McConnell has shown a bit more ability but not much. Steele is outright incompetent. The Union Army will have to find victory through the strength and energy of its soldiers (grassroots campaign) not its generals.