Monday, March 8, 2010

Republican Strategy Session: how to win in November

Here is a possible strategy for the Republican Party going forward:

First, the GOP is still not popular and there is no getting around that. Despite the victories of Scott Brown, Chris Christie, and Bob McDonnell, it should not be assumed that America is ready to go Red and are touting the party. Those elections were unique. First, Christie and McDonnell campaigned on local issues, not national. Although many of their ideas and the problems facing their state are applicable to the nation as a whole, it cannot be concluded that the rest of the country, particularly independents, are going to turnout in those numbers and vote so heavily on the side of Republicans. Not all Republicans are Scott Brown.

Realizing that we must now ask: Okay, they won't vote for Republicans just because their Republicans, how can we get out the vote? If you run as the opposition party, yes you will gain ground against an unpopular President and an unpopular Congress but it may not be enough. Usually when the national government is unpopular, turnout is pushed way low. That favors Republicans, as said before but we need to gain 39 seats in the House and 10 seats in the Senate. Being the "other party" is no guarantee of retaking either chamber.

Candidates must run personalized campaigns, not really as a Republican candidate, but a reform candidate and in many cases the conservative candidate, tailored to their personality and the personality of their district. Talking up the party is not helpful. So what do candidates talk about? Candidates need to learn as much as they can about the Tea Party, its principles, and what those people want. They also need to talk to other conservatives that regard themselves as independents and may not have voted in recent elections. Republicans are feeling good but we need to make conseratives feel good. About 40% of this country is conservative while only 27% is liberal. By reaching out to conservatives, particularly those that are unaffiliated with the Republican Party, candidates can tap into a voting block that has for the most part sat out elections over the past four years.

Okay, from the candidate's perspective, it is focus on grassroots, run conservative and run reform. What about the Party? Does the Party just keep quiet? Yes. The current Republican Party, the incumbents in Congress, and the leadership needs to shut up and prepare to step aside if necessary. We cannot allow ego or turf wars to thwart the growth of the party.

People do not like them and do not trust them. In particular: Michael Steele, John McCain, and Mitt Romney are not favorites of conservatives at all. John Boehner and Mitch McConnell invoke a collective yawn. They may be conservative but they do not inspire much enthusiasm. The Party establishment must keep quiet and let this conservative movement manifest itself without intervention in order to see it reach its full potential.

In some cases, the party bosses will see newly elected Congressmen and Senators that will probably not be their ideal choice. But for the good of the country, they need to let conservatives decide through primaries who will be the new generation of Republicans that will retake this country from socialists and radicals that don't care about the prosperity of this country and only take care of parochial interests among their small but loyal base.

Conservatives are not loyal partisans. If they were, Republicans would dominate year in and year out (like I said, conservatives 40%, liberals 27%). Conservatives will stay home and not vote at all if they think both parties are garbage. On the other side, liberals got REALLY excited about Obama and nearly all of them turned out to vote in 2008. That will not happen in 2010.

Who is the future of the Republican party? Who will be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2012? The odds are, we don't know them yet. I am beginning to think it will not be a familiar name.

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